Gameflows

Week 8 DFS (GPP – Main)

Top game stacks

ARI @ MIN

MIA @ DET

CAR @ ATL

 

QB

Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles – $8,300/$9,200)

The Eagles are coming off of a bye and are facing in-state rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The only QB averaging more PPG than Jalen Hurts this year is Josh Allen. Hurts is scoring 24.3 points per game and doing most of his damage in the 1st half of games. Totalling 1,514 passing yards with adding 293 rushing yards and 6 rushing scores. Hurts is as good of a bet that you can make at the QB position. The Steelers are playing tough defense but that is due to come to an end in this one. Even with playing hard the last two weeks against the Bucs and Dolphins, the Steelers are still giving up the 9th most PPG to opposing QBs with 20.1 per game. The only concern in this one is if the Steelers are able to keep pace with the Eagles to make sure they play more than two quarters for Hurts to hit his ceiling. 

 

Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings – $6,100/$7,800)

Coming off of a bye, Kirk Cousins gets to face the Arizona Cardinals, a team that just gave up four TDs to Andy Dalton. Cousins is throwing the ball 38 times a game, yet has the lowest YPA of his career since becoming a full time starter. He is only throwing a TD 3.9% of the time which is another career low for him. I expect him to right the ship in this one against the Cardinals and variance to join his side with TD progression. It doesn’t hurt that he has one of the best WRs in the NFL running free every play with Justin Jefferson also having an elite matchup. 

 

Honorable Mention: Andy Dalton (NO), Jared Goff (DET)

 

Value Play

PJ Walker (Carolina Panthers – $5,200/$6,400)

I like the pivot off of Sam Ehlinger to PJ Walker. In a game that has shootout potential, the Falcons defensive deficiencies align well for Walker. The Falcons are giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and were just lit on fire by Joe Burrow in Week 7. The ironic part of the equation here is that Walker was originally known for his dual threat ability. Walker doesn’t have a single rush attempt so far this year which lines up with the Falcons who are averaging the least amount of QB rushing yards against them this year. It’s not to say Walker can’t run against them, it’s to say it will divert people away from playing Walker due to that. I really like the stackability of this game with Walker, Moore, or Marshall, and coming back with Allgeier or London.

 

RB

Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans – $8,400/$10,000)

Another week, another game we target the Houston Texans. The Texans are an embarrassment at stopping the run. They by far have the worst rush DVOA in the NFL. They are giving up 31.9 full PPR PPG this season, the highest mark in the NFL, and have given up a total of 812 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) and 8 TDs over the span of six games. To further drive the nail into the play, the last time Henry faced the Texans was 2020 where he had 56 rushes for 462 yards and four TDs in two games. I expect the Titans to let Henry eat and I firmly believe he will. 

 

Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts – $8,000/$8,300)

Full disclosure, Taylor has been a late week riser for me. I didn’t think he would come in at sub 10% ownership but here we are. It seems most of the market is going to be playing new Colts QB, Sam Ehlinger. This is fine if that’s the route you want to go, but it isn’t where I’m going this week. Frank Reich is no idiot and he’s not going to throw the sixth round rooke into the fire and just let him rip the ball. What Reich is going to do is run the ever loving shit out of the ball with his horse running back, Jonathan Taylor. Taylor may see 30+ touches in a matchup that the Colts can easily win at home against the Washington Commanders. Taylor only has one TD on the season through 107 touches where last year he was averaging a TD every 18.6 touches. The answer to Taylor’s scoring is likely somewhere in the middle there but no matter how we spin it, Taylor is due to fall into the endzone. Anytime I can get a player that has the homerun ability of Taylor at this volume and this ownership level, I’m going to sign up.

 

Kenneth Walker (Seattle Seahawks – $6,500/$8,400)

The New York Giants are giving up the fifth most rushing yards per game to opposing RBs and the only team with a higher YPC against them this year are the LA Chargers. Over the last three weeks, the Giants have given up 14/114/1 (8.14 YPC) to Travis Etienne, 10/119/1 (11.9 YPC) to Kenyan Drake, and 13/63/0 (4.85 YPC) to Aaron Jones. So we’ve established that quietly, Walker has a juicy matchup on the ground but Walker himself has performed as one of the best RBs in the NFL since taking over as the starter in Seattle. Over the last two games that he has started, he has scored 47.8 PPR points going 44/265/3 (6.02 YPC) on the ground. You can even add in his Week 5 performance against the Saints when Penny was healthy when he went 8/88/1. He has ripped off longs of 74 (TD), 69 (TD), 34, and 21 with 12 total runs of 10 or more. He is playing out of his mind with an above average offensive line in front of him. He should be considered a weekly RB1 and I love his matchup in this one. 

 

Saquon Barkley (New York Giants – $8,100/$9,500)

The same write up for Barkley partially applies here but the matchup is even better. Barkley’s workload has been sitting in elite status all season and this week is no different. He has seen at least four targets in five of the seven games this season, pulling in 25 of them for 180 yards. The Seahawks have given up the third most receptions to running backs so far this season for 8.0 YPR and two receiving TDs. They are middle of the pack at best against opposing rushers but honestly the volume and talent of Barkley makes that irrelevant. Last week Ekeler caught all 12 of his targets for 96 yards and a score against this Seahawks defense and I see Daboll taking a page out of the Charger’s book and utilizing Barkley in a similar manner. 

 

Tony Pollard (Dallas Cowboys – $6,100/$6,300)

This only applies if Zeke is going to miss this game, which he is expected to miss. The Bears have consistently been beaten on the ground except for their trouncing of the New England Patriots in Week 7. They have been hit for at least 117 rushing yards in five of the seven games played and have given up 10 total rushing TDs so far this season. If Zeke is out, I expect Pollard to eat and get 18+ touches. If Zeke is active, I think they eat too much into each other’s workloads to play either of them. Be leary on his ownership. This is the rare instance where I would play Pollard even if he is around 40-50% rostered but make sure you are canceling ownership elsewhere. You can make an argument for ANYONE to be faded at ownership levels like that. I make anywhere from 4-6 lineups each week and if I play Pollard it will either be in every lineup I make or in none of them

 

Raheem Mostert (Miami Dolphins – $5,900/$6,800)

Mostert lines up against the Detroit Lions this week. We have targeted the Lions all year and this matchup is no different.The Lions have given up the 2nd most rushing yards per game, behind only the Houston Texans. They are being gashed for 162.8 yards per game on the ground and are 2nd to only the Cleveland Browns giving up 12 rushing TDs so far this season. Mostert has now taken at least 61% of the teams RB snaps each of the last four weeks and at least 60% of the running back carries over those weeks. With 63 carries, at least 14 a game, and 77.5 rush yards per game over that time frame, it is clear Mostert is the lead back of this backfield. Mostert offers a high floor and high ceiling in this one.

 

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Taylor (IND), Alvin Kamara (NO)

 

Value Play

Tyler Allgeier (Fanduel – Atlanta Falcons – $6,100)

I’m probably going to just go with Pollard in this situation for slightly more but if I am stacking the Panthers/Falcons, I like Allgeier a lot. Allgeier has seen 60% of the Falcons backfield snaps over the last three weeks since Patterson went on the IR. The Falcons are committed to sticking to the run no matter the score and with that, Allgeier has seen touch counts of 13, 15, and 16 the last three games. Again, I’d rather pay for Pollard in a one off situation but the ownership on Pollard is likely to get to 30%+ once Zeke is ruled out. Allgeier is a great pivot from that and a great stack against Walker if you decide to stack this game. 

 

D’Onta Foreman ($5,300) (Draftkings – Carolina Panthers)

As I wrote up in the waiver wire this week, Hubbard was given the 1st team snaps most of the game last week until he went down with a minor ankle injury. After that, Foreman dominated the snaps and played very well. It has recently been reported that Hubbard is out for this matchup against the Falcons on Sunday so I expect Foreman to get north of 65% of the backfield snaps. The Falcons are an average matchup against the run.

 

WR

DJ Moore (Carolina Panthers – $5,300/$6,200)

Moore is seeing elite volume and the Panthers are finally getting him the ball. Over his last three games, Moore has seen 25 targets, which is good for a 40.5% target share. This leads the NFL and will translate over as he faces the Atlanta Falcons this week. The Falcons give up the most points in the NFL on a per game basis with 46.5 PPR per game to opposing WRs. It doesn’t matter if it is in the slot or out wide, they are getting ripped by opposing offenses. Moore will be slightly chalky here but at his price tag and ceiling, I’ll take that flier every day of the week.  

 

AJ Brown (Philadelphia Eagles – $7,700/$8,200)

AJ Brown is going to go overlooked in this matchup because the Steelers are known for getting ripped in the middle of the field rather than the outside. Well, this year, it doesn’t matter. They are still giving up the 6th most PPR points per game to the perimeter WR, along with the most per game to the slot. The ironic part of this as well is that on the season, AJ Brown has seen 23.5% of his snaps in the slot. He is viewed as taking almost on the outside but the Eagles are moving him around the field. Last week against the Cowboys, he took almost 30% of his snaps in the slot. The Eagles are going to put their best offensive weapon in a position to succeed regardless of where it is on the field and they are going to get him the ball. Stacking Hurts with AJ Brown is a great way to diminish the ownership that Hurts is going to carry this week. As I mentioned with Hurts, the issue with game stacking here comes down to if the Steelers can manage to keep pace with the Eagles.

 

Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins – $6,700/$7,800)

If you want to play Tyreek Hill, I’m not going to knock you. On paper, he has seen the volume and been a top WR in the NFL all season long. Well, because of that, he is going to be north of 20% ownership on this slate. I would rather pivot to Jaylen Waddle who is getting closer and closer to 100%. Waddle has only seen a 17% target share over the last three weeks vs. Reek who is seeing nearly double at a 31.5% share. However, looping back to the first three weeks of the season, Waddle actually out targeted Reek before Waddle got hurt in Week 4. Waddle hasn’t actually missed any games but he is slowly getting back to his pre-injury self by playing through it. Both of these WRs have a great matchup heading into Detroit with a game total of 51.5. I’m completely fine with playing Tyreek Hill over Waddle, just know that the matchup and volume is a lot closer than we perceive it to be over recency bias and you are going to have to find chalk relief elsewhere if you play Reek. 

 

Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings – $9,100/$9,000)

Life is smoother when you have Jefferson in your lineup. He is seeing an absurd 29.3% target share so far this year and has yet to come across a matchup that has been able to slow him down. He had a little hiccup in Week 3 but that was due to the game getting away from Head Coach, Kevin O’Connell, rather than JJ being stopped. This is one of my favorite games to stack this week and I think you can stack Cousins with any of the Vikings pass catchers but Jefferson is my favorite from the WR group.

 

Wan’Dale Robinson (New York Giants – $4,700/$5,900)

I like Wan’Dale a little bit more on Draftkings but I certainly think he is playable on Fanduel as well. He is coming off of a game in which his snap participation jumped up to 68.8% from 23.1% in Week 6. His snap participation correlated directly with his target number jumping from four in Week 6 up to eight in Week 7. The best way to beat the Seahawks is in the slot where they are giving up 20.8 PPR PPG. Wan’Dale is moving forward as the main target for this Giants offense who just lost their new starting TE, Daniel Bellinger, to an eye injury. 

 

Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins (ARI), Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), Davante Adams (LV)

 

Value Play

Terrace Marshall (Draftkings – Carolina Panthers – $3,500/$)

As I mentioned with DJ Moore above, the Falcons are getting torn apart by opposing WRs. Over the last three games, Marshall has seen an uptick in targets and playing time. Since Week 5, he has seen his snap share grow from 37.7% to 45.5% and was up to 86% in Week 7. Marshall has earned eight targets which is good for almost a 10% target share and is second on the team. They are scheming plays to get him open as well, making it known they actually want him to succeed. Two of his three targets last week against the Bucs were down field, one he should have caught and another he did for a 20 yard gain. I think Marshall’s volume continues to grow and we only need him to connect on one to pay off his salary. 

George Pickens (Fanduel – Pittsburgh Steelers – $5,500)

Pickens is a bet on talent with some volume to boot. Pickens has played at least 70% of the Steelers snaps in every single game this season and has played at least 76% the last three games. He is seeing a 16.7% target share over those last three games and is gaining steam as his talent is shining through. I have no issues if you want to pay up slightly for Chase Claypool, who is also turning the corner and posting good numbers the last three weeks but I would rather take the WR who I think is more talented and is cheaper for DFS purposes. 

TE

Irv Smith (Minnesota Vikings – $3,500/$5,000)

The Cardinals have given up the most PPR points to opposing TEs so far this season. Juwan Johnson tagged them for 5/32/2 last week and they’ve been hit for 51/539/6 overall throughout the season. Irv Smith is running a route on almost 84% of the Vikings drop backs this season. On top of that, Irv is T-3 in the NFL with three targets inside the 5 yard line, converting two of them for TDs. 

Zach Ertz ( – $5,100/$6,000)

Ertz will face the Minnesota Vikings team this week that is susceptible to the TE position and I really like the over in a game that has a 49 point total. The Vikings have given up the sixth most fantasy points to the position overall at 15.4 PPR points per game. They are allowing the fifth highest percentage of passes to be caught against them as TEs have coverage 39 targets into 31 catches and 352 yards with 3 scores. I suspect Kyler and the Arizona Cardinals to be playing from behind in this one and for Ertz to see double digit targets, a feat he has pulled off in 4 of 7 games so far this season.  

 

Honorable Mentions: TJ Hockenson (DET), Juwan Johnson (NO)

Value Play

Mike Gesicki ($3,800/$5,400)

I like Irv Smith more for cheaper but if you don’t want to play Irv, I would look to Mike Gesicki this week. Gesicki has played at least 61% of the team’s offensive snaps the last two games and has seen a 14% target share over the Dolphins last three games, including 14 in his last two. Gesicki is also being targeted when they get down inside the 5 yards, pulling in two TDs so far on passes from inside the 5. It’s worth mentioning that the Lions are giving up the fifth most PPR PPG to the TE position, however, most of those points come from in-line. Gesicki ran over 60% of his routes from the slot, with more snaps out wide at WR (16) than inline (13) the last two weeks. I still love Gesicki’s matchup and McDaniel’s ability to scheme receivers open. Gesicki should come in under 3% rostered this Sunday. 

 

DST

Dallas Cowboys ($4,000/$5,000)

I know I mentioned Fields in the Waiver article this week. Fields has the ability to be matchup proof due to his rushing, but what the Cowboys are doing on defense this year is absurd. They lead the NFL in nearly every pressure/sack statistic including 29 sacks with a 32.3% pressure rate. The Bears are leading the NFL in sacks taken with 27 and by far the highest sack rate at 16.6% with the next closest being the Atlanta Falcons at 10.2%. Justin Fields is third in the NFL in INT rate with 4.4% which is behind only Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett. It is worth noting that the Bears are playing on only five days rest and are playing the second of back to back away games. Confidently fire up the Dallas Cowboys at home in this one. 

Washington Commanders ($2,600/$3,400)

The issue here would be ownership. The price tag is right and that’s why they will be highly rostered. The Colts are trotting out a former sixth round draft pick, Sam Ehlinger, at QB this week. In Ehlinger’s college career, he was a dual threat QB who was inaccurate. He ran a 4.84 40-yard dash at the combine which isn’t the speed you want from a true dual threat QB. Ehlinger is going to be highly rostered in DFS this week due to his price tag but I’d rather pivot to the defensive side and have double leverage if he fails.

Value Play

Chicago Bears ($2,400/$3,000)

If you’re going to punt, go with the Bears. They play sound defense and are facing an offensive line that has been below average this year. Dak Prescott didn’t look good in his return from his hand surgery against the poor Detroit Lions defense. The Bears just demolished the Patriots in New England and are coached very well on defense. They don’t make mistakes and they buzz to the ball. If Fields can get them an early lead and Dak has to throw, I think they can get home to get you a few points at minimal salary.








Sanaynay
Author: Sanaynay

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