USFL Week 4
HOU @ PHI (FOX) Saturday (5/6 1:00pm)
I think we’ll get some points in this one. Philadelphia let us down last week and they just couldn’t connect on offense. It was one of those games where things were just one step off throughout the entire game. The OL couldn’t protect Cookus and the timing just wasn’t there. This couldn’t be a more perfect game for the Stars to right the ship. The Houston defense has been terrible through the first three games of the season and they have been terrible specifically against the pass. They have a league worst five sacks through three games. They have given up the 2nd most points so far with 93 and only Memphis giving up more (99). The Gamblers have also given up the most passing yards to opposing teams with 770. On the flip side, the Gamblers shouldn’t have any issue having success on the ground. The Stars are the 3rd worst rush defense while the Gamblers finally have Mark Thompson back. Thompson ran it 21 times for 81 yards and two scores in his return. I like the Stars ML (-140) and I will dabble but I am really interested in the over here.
MEM @ MICH (NBC) Saturday (5/6 7:30pm)
The Memphis Showboats defense is bad. Very bad. They have given up most points to opposing teams with 99 while also giving up the 2nd most rushing yards and 2nd most passing yards, combining for the most total yards given up. While Michigan laid an egg last week against the Generals, I’m going back to the well this week. I think they cover the 6.5 point spread over the Showboats. With that being said, I don’t think I’m going to go there. I’d rather parlay the Panthers ML with the Stallions giving me a playable -120 line.
NO @ NJ (NBC) Sunday (5/7 3:00pm)
This game is going to be fun. The Breakers offense is looking nearly unstoppable as they have players leading all three major offensive categories. We have McLeod Bethal-Thompson (MBT) leading the USFL in passing yards (2nd in TDs), Wes Hills leading the USFL in rushing yards (301) and TDs (6), and Sage Surratt leading in receiving yards (257) and receptions (20). This team is explosive and when they are clicking on cylinders (they are) they are nearly unstoppable. We just saw them run through a very good Birmingham Stallions team like it was nothing. Their main issue was the offensive line and they held the Stallions pass rush to no sacks while dropping 45 on them. They shouldn’t have an issue dropping 30+ on the Generals and with how well the Generals played against the Panthers last week, we can expect that to leak into Week 4. If the Generals have success running against the Breakers, this game could explode like the Breakers game did in Week 3. I’m playing the over pre-game this time.
*NOTE: For what it is worth, this game carries the highest over/under of the slate. Not by much, as the other games are floating around 44/45 as of right now and this line is 47.5. I really like the over to hit so this is a great game stacking situation. It is up there with the Gamblers/Stars game but I still slightly prefer that game for DFS given projected ownership levels.
BIRM @ PIT (FS1) Sunday (5/7 6:30pm)
I’m not going to spend too much time on this game. I’m not sure how the Maulers pulled off the upset in Week 3 but I’m caulking that up as an anomaly. Like I mentioned above, the Stars were just off their game. The Maulers got pressure and they just couldn’t get settled. The Stars had plenty of chances to score and just couldn’t seal the deal. The Maulers play calling is atrocious and this may be the one spot where I’d lay the 8 points. I’d prefer to parlay with the Michigan ML like I mentioned above but if Michigan loses on Saturday night, I’ll be pivoting to the Stallions spread because I think the Stallions blow the doors off of the Maulers.
HOU/PHI o46 (-110): 2u
PHI ML (-140): 1u
NO/NJ o44.5 (-110): 3u
Michigan ML, Birmingham ML Parlay (-120): 2u