XFL
Saturday
ORL/STL o48 (-110): 1u
DC/SA o42 (-110): 3u
Sunday
HOU ML (-105): 1u
VGS/SEA o47 (-110): 3u
USFL
Quick notes on each team that I saw after 1 week and give some insight as to why I’m on what I’m on.
Saturday
HOU/NO o39 (-110): 2u
I liked what I saw enough out of Houston’s offense to think they can keep pace with the Breakers this week. The Breakers offense started incredibly slow but this was due to two factors. First, this is a new QB trying to get on the same page with this offense, which is a new offense within itself. All of the playmakers are returning for the most part in the backfield and out wide but the QB is new and so is the play caller. This is only going to get better and better. Secondly, the Maulers got a ton of pressure up the middle which threw new QB McLeod Bethal-Thompson (MBT) for a loop because he couldn’t step up in the pocket. Given he is a pure pocket passer, this posed issues. Once they got it straight, they moved the ball pretty easily. Houston’s defense is thin and can be had by this high powered, passing offense.
NO ML, BIRM ML Parlay (-125): 2u
So to piggy back more on the Breakers being a great offense moving forward, I think they win. So pairing this with Birmingham to win is the route I’m going. I don’t have confidence in Memphis to necessarily keep the game close but I have a lot of confidence in the Stallions to move the ball and control the game. Their defense shut the Generals down to only 10 points last week and held DeAndre Johnson to only 4/13 passing and got him benched for Dakota Prukop. The Stallions have lost pre-season starting QB, J’Marr Smith for the season but McGough is just as good, possibly even better given his dynamic he is. On top of that, the Stallions just signed Kyle Sloter. I don’t expect Sloter to get much action, if any at all, this week. But I do think the Stallions handle the Memphis Showboats. The Showboat’s QB situation is ugly and the only path they have to victory is for Alex Collins to dominate on the ground and they control the clock getting the Stallions completely out of whack. This is possible but very unlikely. This is why I’m not paying up for the 8.5 point spread and want to focus on the Moneyline.
Sunday
NJ/PIT o36.5 (-110): 1u
I think the issues from New Jersey’s offense last week was a mix of regression and the Stallions defense just being a stout defense. This week they travel to Pittsburgh who has an offense that has drastically improved. The issue the Maulers offense has faced is consistent QB play. I don’t think the Generals defense is anything special to where the stud WR group for the Maulers can’t overcome that and we see a much improved group in Week 2. Pair that with a dominant rushing offense of the Generals and I think we get to 37. It is also worth mentioning that I really liked the Generals to win this game when the lines broke. They opened as -1 favorites and that line has been steamed up to -5.5. I’m not laying the 5.5 but if you want to throw them in a parlay, I am comfortable with that.
MICH/PHI o46.5 (-110): 3u
Both of these offenses are incredible in terms of spring leagues. Josh Love played well last year and continued that into Week 1 of this season, going 18/20 for 215 yards and a flawless 3 TDs with no picks. You mix that with the best offense with the Philadelphia Stars, led by USFL MVP candidate Case Cookus and we will see some fire works. The high line of 46.5 doesn’t scare me and I think there is a real chance both of these teams score 30+ in this one. If laddering was available for the USFL, I’d ladder the over in this one.
