Just want to remind everyone that the prices I list are for the salaries on Draftkings first and Fanduel second. Also, don’t forget to sign up for both Seasonal and DFS packages and join the discord.
Per usual, if you have any questions or concerns for clarity, ask in chat. Let’s take down this slate!
Top game stacks
BUF @ KC
ARI @ SEA
BAL @ NYG
QB
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs – $8,000/$8,600)
I need to see the “can someone explain this to me like I’m five” meme from the Office on this one. Patrick Mahomes is going to be 1-3% owned in a matchup against the Buffalo Bills at home while Josh Allen receives 20%-30% ownership playing against him. I’ll touch on Allen later because he is worth mentioning, but going with Mahomes is a no brainer when the leverage is that extreme. Mahomes has gone 95/136 passing for 975 yards in the air over his last three games against the Bills. Mahome’s has added 7/69/1 and 8/61 rushing in his last two matchups against the Bills. This game is going to be a lot more fun if you have exposure to the QB/WR stack instead of watching them have another game for the ages and your GPP lineups plummet in the process.
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens – $8,100/$8,800)
I think Lamar is going to come in under 5% rostered this Sunday. Anytime a player with his ceiling comes in at that range, my eyebrow will perk. Lamar will be facing the Giants defense this week who are led by former Ravens Defensive Coordinator, Wink Martindale. Wink was fired after the season for his reluctance to work around his players and relentless blitz regardless of matchups. So, Lamar will be facing a relentless blitz this weekend. As long as his offensive line holds up, he will absolutely shred this defense. Last week, the O-line saw All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley return, however Stanley only played a third of the snaps. Expectation is that snap share will grow and Stanley looked fantastic in his debut. The Ravens inability to stop the run sets this up for a thin stack of Lamar, Andrews, and Barkley.
Worth Mentioning:
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills – $8,200/$9,200)
I don’t want to take away from Josh Allen being a great play this Sunday, but his ownership is extremely high for that reason. Over the last three games that Josh Allen has faced the Chiefs he has gone 70/111 passing for 931 yards and 9 TD’s with 215 rushing yards on 29 carries and a score. The games between the Bills and Chiefs typically get out of hand due to both teams bringing their A-game scripts. Josh Allen is more likely to run in this game vs. a regular game because the winner of this game has likely implications on seeding during playoff time. I’m fine if you play Allen but you NEED to find leverage elsewhere and you likely won’t find it in your RBs this week.
Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray (ARI), PJ Walker (CAR)
Value Play
Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks – $5,700/$7,400)
Going with Geno over Kyler Murray is more of a pick your poison with ownership and price tag. On Draftkings, Geno will be a little bit higher owned than Kyler but will be cheaper. On Fanduel, Kyler will be higher owned and higher priced. Both have great matchups here in a game that can be the highest scoring game on the slate. Both Kyler or Geno also have obvious stacking partners with their respected WR groups. Geno has been absolutely on fire so I am going with the cheaper option so I can spend up and differentiate elsewhere. Also, Kyler’s reluctance to run this year has put a damper on his fantasy ceilings, even in games that the Cardinals are trailing early.
RB
Saquon Barkley (New York Giants – $7,700/$8,800)
Barkley is the best all around RB in the NFL. The Ravens show being gashed in the air but as of lately, their star CB’s (Humphrey & Peters) have gotten healthier and are dominating opposing WRs. However, the biggest hole in the Ravens offense is their rush defense. As we saw last Sunday in London, the Giants are going to stick to the ground game even if they are trailing by 17+. Also, if the Ravens do blow the Giants out, Barkley is the leading receiver on this team. The Ravens have given up the second most receptions to RBs this year with 36. Play the elite talent against a very soft and overmatched rush defense.
Eno Benjamin (Arizona Cardinals – $4,600/$6,300)
If James Conner is out, I’m taking the free square that is Eno Benjamin. The Seahawks have been absolutely gashed every which way on the ground so far this season. Seattle has given up the second most rushing yards and third most receiving yards to opposing RB’s. Over the last three weeks they have been hit on the ground by Cordarrelle Patterson for 17/141/1, Jamaal Williams for 19/108/2, Kamara for 23/103, and Taysom Hill for 9/112/3. If James Conner starts, I would insert him into this slot and fire him up confidently as a lower owned option than Eno Benjamin.
Rhamondre Stevenson (New England Patriots – $6,000/$7,500)
Assuming Stevenson inherits the bulk share of the RB touches in this one, he is a smash play. The Browns have given up the second most rushing TDs, fourth most rushing yards, and have yielded the second highest YPC. Due to all of that, they are giving up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing backs. This matchup comes on the heels of Stevenson dropping 25/161 on the Lions and adding in 2/14 receiving. The devil’s advocate scenario for Stevenson is the history the Patriots have of giving random RB’s the bulk share because they started the game as the hot hand. I don’t see that being an issue here as there is no one else on this roster with the talent level of Stevenson. But, it is worth nothing that at ownership levels over 40% you are eliminating almost half the field if Stevenson were to bust. ANYONE at those ownership levels are worth fading.
Darrell Henderson (LA Rams – $5,100/$5,700)
For some reason we do not know yet, Akers is missing Sunday’s matchup against the Carolina Panthers. I was close to adding Akers to this article before that happened but I was still concerned about efficiency and workload. Now that Akers is ruled out, Henderson is expected to take the lion’s share of the carries. The Panthers are not very good against the ground game and have given up the eighth most fantasy points to opposing RBs. They are getting beat on the ground to the line of 4.8 YPC on 125 attempts and 4 rushing TDs.
Devin Singletary (Buffalo Bills – $5,900/$5,700)
The Bills tend to lean heavier on Devin Singletary in games that have higher importance. The Chiefs are giving up the most receptions to RB’s and it’s not close. KC has given up a league high 49 receptions to RB’s for 350 yards and 2 TD’s so far. I’m expecting 6+ targets here and 10+ rushes with a higher probability to fall into the end zone.
Honorable Mention: Jeff Wilson (SF), Kenneth Walker (SEA)
Value Play
Jerick McKinnon (Kansas City – $4,700/5,500)
McKinnon has led the Chiefs in snaps during four of the five games so far this season. Last week, the Chiefs fell down 17-0 in the first half which led to McKinnon taking 52.8% of the snaps and seeing eight carries with two receptions on three targets for nineteen yards. Unfortunately, he did not fall into the endzone and only has one TD on the season. I like his chances of seeing an increased workload in this one as he has consistently been the Chiefs best all around RB this season.
WR
Marquise Brown (Arizona Cardinals – $7,200/$8,200)
Hollywood Brown is the WR6 overall in full PPR formats so far on the season. Brown has scored at least 12.8 points in every game this season with point totals of 28, 20.8, and 21.8 over his last three. Brown has seen double digit targets in every game except Week 1 totaling 55 on the season which is tied with Justin Jefferson for second in the NFL behind only Cooper Kupp. The Seattle Seahawks have given up the LEAST amount of points to perimeter WRs in the NFL so far this season so everyone is going to pivot to the slot WR (Rondale Moore) in this matchup. When you dig deeper, the only WR that this Seahawks defense has faced that poses a threat is Cortland Sutton which was Week 1 and he went 4/72 on 7 targets. Other than that, through Weeks 2-5, the Seahawks have faced SF, ATL, DET, and NO. All four teams focus their talent between the numbers and don’t target their perimeter WRs at a high rate. It is worth noting that outside WR, Chris Olave (NO), was 4/54/1 on six targets before exiting last week’s game with a concussion. All in all, I think the numbers are deflated for a number of reasons. I’m not afraid of this matchup like everyone else. I’ll confidently fire up Hollywood this week.
J’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals – $7,700/$8,100)
The Bengals may be without Tee Higgins in this one against the Saints. People view the Saints as a tough matchup in the air, and they aren’t pushovers, but Marshon Lattimore is no longer the elite CB we think of when we think of him. Lattimore has been beaten quite a bit this year and he is no longer in the group that can shut down a player of Chase’s caliber. The Saints have given up the fifth most points to perimeter WRs this season and I don’t see that changing this week with facing the likes of Chase.
Juju Smith-Schuster (Kansas City Chiefs – $5,200/$6,400)
Juju is due for a breakout game. He has seen eight targets in four of the five games this season. The Buffalo Bills present a difficult matchup, but as I mentioned, when talking about Patrick Mahomes, it doesn’t really matter in ultra competitive games like this one will be. He isn’t expensive on either site and will be less than 5% owned on both Draftkings and Fanduel. This game has by far the largest total on the slate of 54. I’ll take Mahomes’ WR1 at low ownership and cheap prices all day long.
Isaiah McKenzie (Buffalo Bills – $5,000/$6,000)
McKenzie is looking to be back at full strength when the Bills take on the Chiefs this Sunday. I expect McKenzie to assume the full slot duties upon his return and the Chiefs give up 25.64 PPR points per game to the slot WR. As I’ve mentioned, I expect this game to be a high scoring contest and plenty of pass attempts from Josh Allen. Allen will look to lean on McKenzie to move the chains which should result in 8+ targets for McKenzie and a heightened chance to score.
Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,100/$6,800)
Godwin has the best matchup of his season this Sunday when the Bucs visit the Steelers. The Steelers have been absolutely gutted for 31.9 PPR points per game from the slot WR position this year so far. After Meyers posted a 7/111/1 line last week, Godwin is looking to feast on the depleted Pittsburgh secondary. The only concern with Godwin is a restricted playing time if the Bucs get up early and quick. I think the Steelers keep this one somewhat close and Godwin plays at least 70% of the snaps.
Honorable Mention: Justin Jefferson (MIN), Deebo Samuel (SF)
Value Play
Mike Thomas (Cincinnati Bengals – $3,000/$4,600)
If Tee Higgins misses this matchup, insert Mike Thomas into the equation. Higgins has missed significant game snaps twice this season and both times Mike Thomas has fit right into the 3WR sets at a high percentage of snaps. In Higgins absence last week, Thomas played 71.4% of the offense snaps and he caught one of his three targets for 33 yards. In Week 1, Higgins went down after 26 snaps and Thomas proceeded to play 69 (69%) of the team’s offensive snaps and he saw five targets that week. With an above average matchup and seeing over 70% of the snaps, all we need is a few catches for his price tag to pay off.
If Tee Higgins is Active
Rondale Moore (Arizona Cardinals – $4,200/$5,600)
TE
George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers – $5,100/$5,700)
The Atlanta Falcons have been peppered by the TE position all season long. Last week they were hit by the likes of Cade Otton to the tune of 6/43 on 7 targets which is by far the best game of his career. Overall, teams are targeting their TEs at the second highest rate in the NFL against the Falcons and have completed 75.6% of those passes for 355 yards and a score. Overall, they have given up the fourth most fantasy points to the position. George Kittle is known for blow up spots and I’m banking on one here.
Zach Ertz (Arizona Cardinals – $4,900/$6,000)
I’ll be targeting TEs against Seattle every week and this week just so happens that it is in a game stack. Seattle got wrecked by TJ Hockenson two weeks ago and even gave up 2/32/1 to Adam Trautman of the Saints last week. Seattle has given up the third most fantasy points to TEs overall if you remove the Taysom Hill rushing stats which really shouldn’t count against the Seahawks as TE points. Either way, I expect the Cardinals to have to throw a lot in this one and Ertz has earned the fourth most TE targets in the NFL so far this year with three double digit target games.
NOTE: I like Kittle more on Fanduel and Ertz more on Draftkings but both can be played on both sites.
Honorable Mentions: Evan Engram (JAX), Travis Kelce (KC)
Value Play
Irv Smith (Minnesota Vikings – $3,200/$4,900)
Irv Smith has seen a consistent flow of targets (five per game) over his last three games and saw 63.3% of the teams offensive snaps in Week 5. Miami is giving up high percentage plays to the TE position, allowing completions on 30 of 38 targets for 304 yards and two scores. Overall, they have given up the 8th most points to the position. Smith has seen at least one red zone target in each of his first five games except one which was Week 5. For his price, a 4/40/1 type of day pays off for the money savings.
DST
LA Rams ($4,100/$4,400)
I’ll probably be ending up on the other side of this coin with the Panthers, but the Rams have a very good matchup this week as well. Being at home against a team that just fired their head coach and is starting their fourth string QB, stirs a recipe for success. The Panthers offensive line is average to below average and have yet to really gel as a unit. The Rams have some elite talent to shine in games that they play talent deficient teams. LA has a high floor if you just want to pay up for it.
Minnesota Vikings ($3,400/$4,800)
Speaking of paying up for a high floor, we have the Minnesota Vikings facing the Miami Dolphins and third string QB, Skylar Thompson. The Vikings haven’t been anything to write home about this year so far and are somewhat overpriced here, but Thompson proved last week he is completely overmatched right now in the NFL. Last week, in relief against a below average defense in the New York Jets, Thompson went 19/33 for 166 yards with no scores and a pick. He absorbed two sacks. Scheming only goes so far when you have a 7th round rookie making his first NFL start.
Value Play
Carolina Panthers ($2,400/$3,700)
I typically don’t like to roster defenses that travel across the country and face competent head coaches but the LA Rams offense is a mess right now. Their offensive line can’t block anyone and the Panthers have at least a top 15 pass rushing defensive line with some raw talent on it. Stafford has absorbed 12 sacks the last two weeks and if the Panthers defensive line can wreak some havoc, Stafford is going to add to his league high INT count.
