Top game stacks

CIN @ PIT

CHI @ ATL

PHI @ IND

QB

Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals – $6,800/$8,300)

The Steelers are giving up the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs so far this season. Having already gone through their bye week, they have still given up the 6th most passing yards, the 2nd most passing TDs, and the 5th highest net yards per attempt. Joe Burrow currently sits as the QB4 in PPG (22.2) this season. With that average, Burrow has not topped 19.14 in over half of his games with hitting that overage only three times. He is a very boom QB who plays off of emotions and he has two games over 32.5 and 39.24 points. This is a prime spot for him to pop and drop one of those 30+ point games that can alter the outcome of a slate when you consider matchup and revenge. 

Justin Fields (Chicago Bears – $7,600/$8,700)

We are going to be riding Fields one more week. The Falcons defense gives up the 9th most points per game to opposing QBs and is the 5th highest on this slate. The Falcons defense has also given up the 3rd most points overall this season while the Justin Fields led Chicago Bears have averaged 31 points per game over their last four games. The Falcons usually have success stopping opposing QBs from gaining any yards on the ground and get beat mainly in the air which is scary (in a good way) when you consider most of Fields’ production comes from the ground. The reason this is scary is because no one can stop Justin Fields running the ball right now. If Fields can establish another 60+ rushing yards with another running score, the sky’s the limit with his fantasy production through the air. Pairing him with Mooney is an excellent path this week.

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts (PHI),  Marcus Mariota (ATL)

Value Play

Zach Wilson (New York Jets – $5,000/$6,700)

The last time these two teams played, Zach Wilson dropped 16.4 points while throwing for 355 yards and two touchdowns but had three picks. On both sites Wilson is priced at the bottom of the barrel so we don’t need a ton for Wilson to pay off here. If he can get a few points on the ground while throwing for 250+ yards and a few scores, he’ll get home at 3x-4x his cost. Pairing him with Conklin and bringing it back with Jakobi Meyers or Stevenson opens up a ton of money to load up elsewhere in a rather unique slate that could see the GPP winner having a slim stack with a cash game type lineup build. 

RB

Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts – $7,800/$8,700)

In Week 8 the Philadelphia Eagles rookie Defensive Tackle, Jordan Davis, injured his ankle and he hasn’t played since. He was a major component in the Eagles ability to stuff the opponents rushing attack over the first two months of the season. Over the last two games, the Eagles have played a closer game than expected against the Texans and actually lost at home to the Washington Commanders. In those games, the defense has had a hard time getting off of the field because they keep getting hit for 4-5 yard chunk runs by opposing offenses. These aren’t elite rushing attacks either, it is Dameon Pierce, who is a fine rookie but by no means an elite rusher and against the Commanders who runs out below average running back, Brian Robinson, and Antonio Gibson. In Week 9, Pierce ran the ball 27 times for 139 scoreless yards and in Week 10, Robinson ran the ball 26 times for 86 yards and a score while his running mate, Antonio Gibson, ran it 14 times for 44 yards and a score. These YPA averages aren’t blowing the top off of the box score but the volume in which these runners are getting definitely is. Enter Jonatahn Taylor in Week 11. We need to take notice of what the Colts did in Week 10 against the Raiders and forecast for what they are going to do. In Week 10, Jonathan Taylor ran the ball 22 times for 147 yards and a score (while Ryan stole a 1-yard QB sneak TD) while Ryan only threw the ball 28 times. The Colts are now coached by former NFL Center, Jeff Saturday. This team is going to establish it. In this matchup, I see a path for Taylor to even hit 30 rush attempts. The Colts are going to run the ball down the Eagles throats time and time again for 4-5 yard pops and eventually, Taylor is going to break one. Sign me up on both sites for his price tag because his volume is extremely tough to find. 

Saquon Barkley (New York Giants – $8,900/$9,700)

Barkley gets to face off against the Detroit Lions this week. The Lions have been plucked for the 3rd highest YPA to opposing rushers and have given up the 2nd most rushing TDs in the NFL with 15. Only the Bears have given up more (17) and they played an extra game. Barkley isa full blown workhorse and saw 35 rushing attempts last week against the Texans, going for 152 yards and a score. Rinse and repeat here as the Giants take on the Lions at home in an attempt to move to 8-2. 

Rhamondre Stevenson (New England Patriots – $6,700/$8,100)

Stevenson’s ownership may get a little out of hand on Draftkings but I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t warranted. Over his last three games, Stevenson has seen at least seven targets in each of them, including a 7/72 receiving game against this same Jets team back in Week 8. On top of that, he has had double digit rushing attempts every single game since Week 3. Even with Week 8 being the only game out of his last three where he didn’t score a TD, his receiving work still got him to 21.3 PPR points which is 3x his salary on Draftkings. He is worth eating the chalk and I also think this is a rare instance you can start the Jets DST WITH Stevenson in your lineup. I wouldn’t actively try to do that but if that’s how your lineup lays and you need the DST savings, I think you can manage 7 points from the Jets DST and still have Stevenson hit a 30+ point ceiling. This is what happened in Week 8 when Stevenson went for 21.3, the Jets DST still scored 8. 

Devin Singletary (Buffalo Bills – $5,800/$6,200)

Last week we thought that the Bills might rely more on the running game with Josh Allen’s elbow being in limbo and not 100%. Singletary went on to get 13 carries with two targets and stole all of the red zone work from Josh Allen. Singletary ended up scoring two TDs from runs inside the 5-yard line. This week he will face off the Cleveland Browns indoors in Detroit. The Browns have given up the 2nd most PPR points per game to opposing backs so far this season and have given up the 2nd most rushing TDs (12) to opposing backs. They have also given up the 9th most receptions to enemy backs and the 3rd most receiving TDs. I expect Singletary to take off the load from Josh Allen just like last week and see 15+ touches and the goal line work again. 

Cordarrelle Patterson (Atlanta Falcons – $6,200/$6,700)

The Chicago Bears have been the worst rush defense in the NFL so far this season on many fronts. They have given up the most rushing TDS (17), most 1st downs to opposing rushers (85), 8th highest YPA (4.7), 4th most rushing attempts against and 3rd most total yards against. As I have mentioned over the last few weeks, they lost Roquan Smith to the Ravens who is an elite run stuffing LB. Patterson is coming off of a “mini” bye which they haven’t played since November 10th when they played on TNF last week against the Panthers. Patterson played about 39% of the offensive snaps in both of those two games and with him coming off of an injury and them being so close together, that makes a ton of sense. I expect him to be ramped up more this week and see a 50%+ rush share in Week 11 against the Bears. It is worth noting that if you believe in revenge games, Patterson played for the Bears for two seasons in 2019 and 2020 before joining the Atlanta Falcons in 2021. Keep in mind this is a GPP play that can become very frustrating if he does in fact continue to see a 40% snap share. Even then I like his chances of success on the ground on limited touches and odds of scoring are increased so I do think his floor is there.

Honorable Mention: D’Andre Swift (DET), Antonio Gibson (WAS)

Value Play

David Montgomery (Fanduel – Chicago Bears – $6,200)

The ownership of Montgomery is going to get out of hand. I don’t think he is a must play but we need to understand what we are getting when we roster him. With a projected ownership north of 40%, Montgomery is going to be a pivotal player when it comes to who takes down GPPs this week. I am leaning to fade Montgomery but at his price tag, it is tough. He has the perception to take on the majority of the rushing share in Chicago, an offense that has developed one of the leading rushing attacks in the NFL. The issue I have is that Montgomery, as much as he is playing 60-70% of the snaps as I mentioned last week, he is only seeing 30% of the rushing share. This was with Khalil Herbert as his running mate and now he has Trestan Ebner spelling him. I think that the likeliest scenario is that Montgomery gets about 10-14 carries against a middling rushing defense and ends up around 60 rushing yards with next to no air work. The ceiling for Montgomery comes into play with the fact he is in line to only compete with Justin Fields down at the goal line for TDs and is sporting a game total that is tied for the highest on the slate with the Bears averaging 31 points over the last month of the NFL season. One of the things you need to decide on this week is if you are all in with Montgomery or completely fading him. 

Jaylen Warren (Draftkings – Pittsburgh Steelers – $4,900)

In Week 10 Warren made this backfield almost an even split, taking 36 offensive snaps to Najee Harris’ 50. Over his last three games, he has seen target counts of two, three, and three while even out targeting Harris three to one last week. Over his last two games, he has added 15 carries for 87 scoreless rushing yards. With the Steelers slated to be 3.5-point underdogs in this matchup, I think Warren seeing 8-10 carries with 4 targets is very realistic. I also think this game goes over its 41 point total so I envision Warren having a slightly higher chance of scoring a TD. Accruing 70 total yards with three receptions and a score is going to more than pay off for Warren this week. It’s worth noting that Najee Harris has been dealing with various injuries, most notably a hobbled knee. If the Bengals go out and dominate early like I think, Warren absolutely could most certainly see 60%+ of the snaps here. 

WR

Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals – $7,100/$7,600)

Higgins is probably going to go nuclear here. Over his last four games he has seen target counts of 9, 7, 6, and 8 and scored 10.7, 14.3, 13.9 and 13 PPR points respectively in those games. Now, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been bludgeoned by opposing WRs this season, even on the perimeter. They have given up the 8th most points to outside WRs, the most to the slot and the 2nd most overall. The Cincinnati Bengals and specifically Joe Burrow, were embarrassed against this same Pittsburgh Steelers team in Week 1 when they fell to them 23-20. In that game Joe Burrow had FIVE turnovers. It is rare for a divisional opponent to completely sweep within the division against a team and especially against a team that is better than them, and the Bengals are better than the Steelers. Joe Burrow and his Bengals WR group is going to be out for blood and the OL is going to have that chip on their shoulder to protect Burrow who absorbed seven sacks in their first matchup. Burrow is going to take shot after shot to prove a point. Higgins is going to be the main beneficiary. 

Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders – $5,900/$7,300)

Since Taylor Heinicke has taken over as the QB of the Washington Commanders, McLaurin has seen at least eight targets in every single game. Over that four game stretch McLaurin has caught 24 of his 36 targets for 370 yards and a score. That is an average of six receptions for almost 93 yards and he gets to carry that usage into Week 11 against the Houston Texans. The Texans have been smoked by opposing WR1s so far this year and present the 2nd worst DVOA to opposing WR1s so far. This is mainly due to the slow development of rookie Derek Stingley, who was the 3rd overall pick in this past year’s NFL Draft. With Heinicke giving McLaurin the elite WR1 treatment, I foresee a 100+ yard game for McLaurin in this one. 

Darnell Mooney (Chicago Bears – $5,400/$6,000)

Mooney’s fantasy production is lacking behind his volume as of recent. This is mainly due to him only having one TD on the season but he has seen at least five targets in every game since Week 2 except one and is in a smash blow up spot here. The Falcons are giving up the most points to opposing WRs in both full PPR and half PPR formats. In full PPR scoring formats they are giving up both the 2nd most points to perimeter WRs and slot WRs while it is 3rd in half PPR formats. To be frank, their secondary is getting torched everywhere. On the season, Mooney is up to taking 60.5% of his snaps in the slot and that has increased to 62.5% and 69.2% in the two games since they have acquired Chase Claypool. 

Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints – $6,800/$6,900)

Chris Olave should be viewed as the Saints #1 WR for the remainder of the season. I think he goes overlooked this week because he was out targeted by Jarvis Landry in Week 10’s loss in Pittsburgh. I think that was more of a product that the Saints couldn’t give Dalton enough time to get Olave the ball on deeper routes. Between Weeks 2 and 9, Olave was seeing almost 10 targets per game and catching on average almost 6 of them. Olave is a polished and talented rookie who is likely going to take his game to the next level the second half of the season, a time frame in which rookies usually flourish because they are more accustomed to the game speed at the NFL level. This week, he will face off against the Rams who give up the most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs, where Olave plays almost all of his snaps. 

Gabe Davis (Buffalo Bills – $6,300/$7,100)

Gabe Davis is going to come in very low owned due to his slightly inflated price on both sites mixed with the uncertainty of Josh Allen’s elbow. I like Davis as a sub 5% rostered one-off this week in a matchup that is a lot juicier than people are noticing. The Browns are giving up the 4th most points per game to perimeter WRs in both Full and half PPR. According to football outsiders, they are the 7th worst team in the NFL for WR2 DVOA. On top of that, Davis has FINALLY turned a corner these last three weeks and has shown some promise at being an actual WR volume wise with a 22.2% target share, seeing 22 targets over the last three games. He has scores of 5.5, 5.3 and 21.3 over that span. To top off why I like Davis more this week, they are playing on turf in Detroit. It only takes one catch for Davis to pay off his price tag and blow up a slate and he is going to get a few shots here. If you are worried about Allen’s arm, don’t forget that he already hit Davis on a 70-yard bomb against the Jets that Davis “dropped” (great coverage by Sauce Gardner) but was put right on the money for Davis. 

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown (PHI), Justin Jefferson (MIN)

Value Play

Parris Campbell (Draftkings/Fanduel – Indianapolis Colts – $4,300/$5,600)

Facing the Eagles this week is a neutral matchup at best. The Eagles have given up the 11th fewest PPR points per game to the slot WR position so far this season. They haven’t faced any slot WR worthy of bringing up except Ceedee Lamb in Week 6 when Lamb caught five of his nine targets for 68 scoreless yards. Cooper Rush was the Cowboys QB in that game so I’m not going to argue that the Eagles are good against the slot, or bad. They’re neutral. What I am interested in is the volume Parris Campbell is getting. As I mentioned in my Waiver write up with Campbell, in his last three games with Matt Ryan under center, Campbell has averaged almost 11 targets per game, eight receptions, 68 yards and a score per game. This amounts to 20.77 PPR PPG over that stretch. It is clear to me that Ryan likes and trusts going to Campbell consistently over the course of a game. The Colts are projected 6.5 underdogs in this matchup and I do like it to go over the 45 game total so Campbell should be in line for another double digit target performance. 

TE

Pat Freiermuth (Pittsburgh Steelers – $4,200/$5,400)

Over the Muth’s last three games, he has led the Steelers in target share with a 21.2% share and seeing 23 targets over that span and having at least seven targets in each of those three games. Through the first five weeks of the season, the Bengals were giving up the 10th most PPR points to opposing TEs with that number being completely flipped on its head since Week 6 with them giving up the fewest. There was no one who came back from injury or no fundamental change that was the reason for this drastic change. It was various factors from games getting out of control (win over ATL) and facing teams who don’t have a TE to utilize (CLE & CAR). In Week 11, as I mentioned above with the expectation of Joe Burrow having a ceiling game, Pat Freiermuth is set up for a better situation than it seems on the surface. I think Freiermuth will see 8+ targets and have a higher chance for a TD in a game that the Steelers will have to throw more than they want to.

Greg Dulcich (Denver Broncos – $3,800/$5,500)

I like to target the Raiders defense against TEs on a weekly basis and this week is no different. Since starting his rookie season in Week 6, Dulcich has seen at least three targets in every game. He has scored at least 11 PPR points in three out of four of the games he has played and he has seen as many as nine targets in a game. My main concern with Dulcich going forward and in this game is Russell Wilson. Wilson has shown a consistent inability to throw over the middle and Dulcich’s two big plays came on catches on the perimeter of the field. I think that the Broncos get Dulcich out on the outside, especially if Jeudy were to miss and I think this matchup presents better red zone opportunities for Dulcich, a spot that Russ has shown an ability to connect with his TE at. I vastly prefer Freiermuth this week but Dulcich is a strong second option if you want to go that route. 

Honorable Mentions: Tyler Conklin (NYJ), Cole Kmet (CHI)

Value Play

Lawrence Cager (New York Giants – $2,500/$4,500)

So Fanduel has, for some reason, kept Cager as a WR. That is a solid blow as a $4,500 starting TE with this type of matchup is a great punt play we don’t get very often. However, we will get it on Draftkings, where their heads are out of the sand. Last week, Cager caught both of his targets for nine yards and a score. That’s good for 8.9 PPR points and is almost 4x his current salary. I understand this is likely going to be dependent on a TD but the 6’5” athletic TE is a mismatch in the red zone. The Lions have given up a lead leading seven TDs to opposing TDs in their nine games. It is also worth mentioning that the Lions have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing TEs so far this season in PPR formats. They’re certainly worse punts that can be made and at this price, I really like Cager this week against the Lions.  

DST

Baltimore Ravens ($4,000/$4,700)

The Ravens are coming off of a bye, playing at home in sub 40 degree weather against Baker Mayfield. I was completely wrong on Baker this off season and I thought he would be playing much better than what he is. The Ravens are going to have their full arsenal of pass rushers this week for the first time all season. This defense is a defense that everyone needs to keep an eye on for the rest of the season. 

New England Patriots ($3,700/$5,000)

The Patriots are at home against the Jets in a matchup where both are coming off of their bye weeks. The Patriots have the 3rd highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL and the highest on this slate. The last time these two teams played in Week 8, Zach Wilson was harassed all game long and turned the ball over three times. The Patriots offer a high floor here and the ceiling that comes with a higher chance for a defensive score. I think you can also play the New York Jets defense in this one 

Value Play

New York Jets (Draftkings – $2,800/$4,600)

The Jets are incredibly cheap on Draftkings. The last time these two teams met, the Jets sacked Mac Jones six times and forced one interception. Mac Jones is up to 8 turnovers in only six games so far this season with a turnover in every one except his last. He could be turning a corner and I can’t imagine this staff letting Jones continue to turn the ball over with their style of play. However, the Jets defense is cementing themselves as a top tier defense that has talent at every level. At the price of $2,800 on Draftkings, they are a fantastic punt at less than 10% ownership.

Atlanta Falcons (Fanduel – $3,300/$3,400)

I usually offer up one value play defense because it is typically a value on both sites. This week, for whatever reason, that is not the case. The Falcons are overpriced on Draftkings while the Jets are overpriced on Fanduel. The Falcons are at home against the Chicago Bears and I think on Fanduel they offer up as a great leverage play against the Justin Fields chalk. Fields has gone absolutely bonkers these last couple weeks and the majority of that comes from the ground. The Falcons have given up the least amount of rushing yards to QBs so far this year.7,