XFL Breakdown 3/31

I like a lot this weekend in the XFL. Tonight, we kick off a slate that consists of five MLB games and one XFL mixed in with the four NHL games. Tomorrow we get a monster with two XFL games (3pm & 6pm), three MLB games at 2pm, NINE MLB games at 4pm and finally 11 more NHL games starting at 7pm or later. I will specifically be sticking to my XFL plays and adding in the MLB plays I like whether it is straight or parlays. I’ll do a quick write up for each game and explain how I view the games. I’ll also be playing a little aggressive with some parlays to have some fun this weekend. We’re up 20u with XFL alone so I’ll be digging into that to play some longshot parlays.

SEA @ ARL

Seattle is a sizable favorite in this game and rightfully so. The only reason the line isn’t -7 or higher is because the game is in Arlington. I don’t think this carries as much weight as vegas does though. Arlington is going to be trotting out Plitt at QB and he is just atrocious. Once recently acquired Luiz Perez gets a week of practice under his belt, he will start in Week 8. At first glance, I liked over 37.5 because the Seattle offense is so potent and I think they will score points but I really don’t think Arlington can keep pace. Thus landing on the Seattle Moneyline. There may be an opportunity to hit a live line if I feel Arlington can score but it is unlikely.

SA @ Vegas

This line doesn’t make sense to me. San Antonio plays good, sound football. They may have Jack Coan back under center after Coan missed Week 6 with an injury but even if they don’t, Kurt Benkert now has an extra week of practice under his belt and should play vastly better. The Brahma’s defense is playing much better ball while Vegas can’t get out of their own way. Vegas will also be trotting out Jalen McClendon at QB. I would give insight on his style of play or even what to expect, but there is just nothing to go off of. It is never good when a player had almost no college production and graduated back in 2019 with nothing to show for it since. Could McClendon come in and give a spark to this offense? Sure. But the Brahmas defense has been relentless lately and are well coached. The Brahma’s defense has the 2nd rank Rush defense and 2nd ranked Coverage defense per PFF so this won’t be an easy matchup for McClendon’s first XFL start. To top it off, the field out in Vegas plays right into the hands of what the Brahma’s want to do. Pound it on the ground with Patrick and keep control of the game. 

DC @ ORL

This one I’ll keep short and sweet. DC will walk away with a win but the Orlando offense is playing much, much better since Dormady has taken over under center. Since Dormady has taken over at QB, the Guardians have scored 32 and 19 points. I do have some reserves for this offense facing this RELENTLESS DC pass rush but I think they’ll find some success enough to get 14+ points. DC on the other hand, has been absolutely absurd in the first month and a half of the season. Over the last four games, they have won games 34-28 (vs. STL), 32-18 (vs. VGS), 28-20 (vs. STL), and 37-26 (vs. HOU). I don’t really see a world where they score less than 30 points in this game and have a chance to get close to the game total of 45.5 themselves. You can sprinkle in DC -10 but I have a really tough time laying double digits in this league. I would rather just smash the over. I’ll also be throwing DC ML into parlays for the weekend, especially mixing with MLB/NHL on Saturday.

STL @ HOU

Houston has lost two games in a row and will now face the Battlehawks at home. I am not 100% convinced the Roughnecks win this game but I would lean they do. One thing I do think that happens, is points will be scored. Over the last two weeks where Houston has lost, it has been against the Sea Dragons where the offense could not get into a rhythm. I think this was due to the fact that AJ Smith’s (Houston OC) mentor is June Jones (Seattle OC). When that game took place, I felt AJ Smith would coach up to par and it would be a consistent back and forth. It turned out that June Jones basically played DC and handed over the blueprint of what AJ Smith was going to do. Then last week, DC was in the face of Brandon Silvers the entire game. In the 2nd half, the Roughnecks switched over the more agile and allusive backup, Cole McDonald. Houston scored 18 points in the final 16 minutes of that game due to the switch. I don’t think that the Roughnecks will have an issue with either a pass rush or facing a mentor in this one. Houston likely gets up early with St. Louis battling to keep it close. Like I said, Houston should come out with the win but I’m just going to put my money on both teams getting into the endzone.  

SEA ML (-190): 2u

SA ML (+125): 2u

SA/VGS u39.5 (-115): 1u

DC/ORL o45.5 (-110): 3u 

STL/HOU o44.5 (-105): 3u

Parlays

XFL Only

SEA ML, SA ML, DC/ORL o45.5, STL/HOU o 44.5 (+1104): 1u

Mixed

SEA ML (XFL), SDP ML (MLB), HOU ML (MLB), LAD ML (MLB) SEA ML (MLB), SA ML (XFL) (+2014): 1u

SEA ML (XFL), LAD ML (MLB), SEA ML (MLB), SA ML (XFL), DC ML (XFL) (+907): 1u